The COVID Effect on Active Shooter Data
In 2020, the FBI recorded 40 active shooter incidents in the United States — a 100% increase from the 20 incidents recorded in 2016. Yet casualties dropped to 164, the lowest in five years. At first glance, it looked like progress. A closer look at what was happening in America that year tells a different story.
The COVID-19 pandemic emptied schools, offices, churches, restaurants, and sporting venues. Distance learning replaced classrooms. Work-from-home replaced offices. Take-out replaced dining rooms. Gathering in groups — the very thing that makes "soft targets" vulnerable — all but stopped. Fewer populated spaces meant fewer targets. The drop in casualties was a function of vacancy, not security.
The Rebound: 2021–2024
As America reopened, the data confirmed what security professionals feared. According to the FBI’s Active Shooter Reports:
- 2021: 61 incidents, 243 casualties — the highest incident count on record at the time
- 2022: 50 incidents, 313 casualties — including the Robb Elementary shooting in Uvalde, Texas (21 killed)
- 2023: 48 incidents, 244 casualties
- 2024: 24 incidents, 106 casualties — a significant decline, though the underlying threat remains
The 2021 spike coincided with the reopening of schools, workplaces, and public venues. Oxford High School in Michigan (November 2021) and incidents at schools in Arizona and other states demonstrated that the threat had not disappeared — it had been temporarily suppressed by pandemic conditions.
The Danger of Reactive Thinking
One of the most dangerous patterns in security planning is what professionals call "knee-jerk" response — implementing measures only after an incident, then relaxing when the news cycle moves on. March 2020 marked the first March in 18 years without a school shooting. That statistic had nothing to do with improved security and everything to do with empty buildings.
Schools and churches have always been classified as "soft targets" — locations with dense populations and minimal security. Since Columbine, the response has included safety drills, secondary locking devices, School Resource Officers, and zero-tolerance policies for threatening behavior. These are meaningful steps. But 2020 proved that they weren’t the reason casualty numbers dropped that year.
According to Everytown for Gun Safety, the 2023–2024 school year recorded 144 incidents of gunfire on school grounds — a 31% increase over the prior year.
What Genuine Hardening Looks Like
CISA’s K-12 School Security Guide (3rd Edition) outlines the components of legitimate soft-target hardening:
- Controlled and limited access points
- Visitor management systems
- Video surveillance with monitoring
- Emergency communication systems
- Physical barriers on doors and windows — including barricade devices that prevent forced entry
- Trained personnel and regular drills
- Behavioral threat assessment programs
The key distinction is between occupancy-based security (buildings are safe because they’re empty) and infrastructure-based security (buildings are safe because they’re hardened). Only the latter protects people when they return.
Staying Vigilant Across All Threats
A myopic focus on a single threat — whether it’s a pandemic, a specific shooting, or a political crisis — leaves institutions vulnerable to the next one. Effective security is layered, consistent, and maintained regardless of whether the latest headlines involve a shooting or a virus.
Physical barriers like the Bolo Stick door barricade are one layer in that approach. Tested to withstand over 4,200 pounds of force and deployable in one step, they provide the kind of infrastructure-based protection that works whether a building is at full capacity or half-staffed.
Don’t wait for the next incident to act. Explore Bolo Stick products or request a security consultation.